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Mumbai

It took the indian forces 60 hours to flush out 10 or so killers out of Mumbai. It was a horrible scene as it is always when innocent lives are lost and unsuspecting bystanders butchered. I have seen this all too often in my country lately to know any better.

There is a blame game being played for meeting political ends on both side of the border. All the little trust that was ever there is being lost. My western friends are almost convinced that it is the Pakistani terrorists who are behind these happenings in Mumbai. I am not all too sure right now about that. The important question is who is to benefit from all this that has happened. Is it Pakistan, US, Al-Qaeda, other non state actors or perhaps India itself? It would be foolish to think that some 20 odd people will bring this carnage on a city without any clear and positives ends to meet in their own pereverted minds. But a look into their minds is the most difficult and likely impossible sight right now as all of them are already dead; or we think they existed and that they are dead.

I dont think Pakistan or any faction related to Pakistan is to benefit from all the outcomes. Pakistani forces are too involved in the Western border to be able to spare any energy for the pressure India will mount now on our Eastern border. It should be and would be stupid to think or assume that Pakistani govt. or the Pakistani army or the security agencies would have hatched this plan. On the same corollary it is difficult to think that they would let anyone else do this if they knew about it. You can judge how baffled Pakistani govt. officials are by the fact they behaved just during and afte the attacks began, first opting to send and then changing their mind about the ISI chief going to India.

Will Kashmiri factions benefit from this carnage. I doubt it since they have little capacity to mount a BB gun attack without active Pakistani support let alone this massive undertaking.

It is being circulated in the media that a massive amount of planning went into these attacks. After all how were ten odd people able to seize police cars, attack more than 10 places, and hole up in the hotels for 60 hours. This kind of is reminiscent of the Lal Masjid incident. There was active support available for these people in the city itself. So i guess the census should begin from the very dwellers of the city.

If it were Al- Qaeda then they do must have formed strong tactical relationship with the Indian sepratist organizations. The other possibility could be an interaction between Mumbai underworld and Al-Qaeda.

Another far fetched combination could be the Hindu extremist organizations and Al-Qaeda. This seems improbable but is certainly possible in this day and age. I am still uneasy with the fact that the killing spree began with targeted killing of three Indian officers who were all investigating Hindu extremism and RSS terrorism. The question is very simple, "Why would a Muslim terrorist kill a police officer who was working to take down Hindu terrorists?"
It is being conveniently reported that CIA warned India of these attacks atleast twice. How come no one did anything. How come CIA knew about these attacks? It is clear that we know more about our friends than our enemies and that CIA knows Mossad better than anyone else.
So from all this massacre very few parties are to benefit. One being the Indian govt. itself in that they can pressurise Pakistan to hand over the fugitives they have been asking for for a long time. Second will be the Indian extremist parties. Directly through the death of the police officers who were investigating their involvement in terror attacks in India and indirectly by riding the public sentiment of hate against Pakistan and congress party. They will have tremendous political gains.
But the party to benefit from this scenario the most is Israel. By sacrificing just two of its own Mossad has achieved something that will benefit the country for a long time to come. Now Israel can press upon India to take out the nuclear sites of its enemy. Similarly it will act to strain the Pakistan Army in the west that is now on the brink of decisive victory against its operatives in FATA. In the long run it might be able to put Pakistan under international pressure and sanctions that will kill any chances of our economy to bounce back in the wake of plunging oil prices.
One remote possibility to look into is that of Somali pirates. Somali pirates certainly do not like India for taking them to task in the seas and want revenge. They might atleast in part have contributed to these attacks.
Also it is very unlike Laskar Tayyaba to not own its attacks. They almost always own their attacks in a bid for more public support in Pakistan and thus more inflow of funds from general public contributions. I highly doubt that Lashkar carried out these attacks.

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