The past one week has been very unrestful for the people of Pakistan. We have been turning and tossing either in the comfort of our sofas or on the streets about the developments that have transpired in the past seven days or so. The developments are huge and the consequences will be huge still. But should we not see how did this change of heart come into all of a sudden on Zardari's part. I think the change of heart is not sudden in fact it is more planned and worked out and therefore will last longer than we think. It will, for the same reason, be difficult for the people's resistance to trounce.
As there were clear indications that Nawaz Sharif was feeling threatened by the present courts he decided to continue his struggle with the lawyer's movement. Had he decided to do otherwise it would have been a political suicide. He is in a catch 22 of a sort. Zardari on the other hand is a product of NRO and feels threatened by any other court, other than the DOGar court. In the setting of the Punjab govt. actively supporting the long march and the subsequent sit on of the people the struggle would have gained much more momentum. As Islamabad is adjacent to mostly Punjabi jurisdictions supporting the protestors would have been very easy for the Punjab govt. and any such protest would have by every means paralyzed the central govt. until it succumbed to the desires of the protestors. Furthermore in the event of a PML-N govt in Punjab the long march itself during its passage through Punjab would have received enormous support from the govt., therefore sustaining it. This is something unacceptable to Zardari and his company. It was therefore suggested to him most likely by the governor Punjab that steps should be taken to dissolve the present govt. in Punjab so that for the time period of the long march control over govt. machinery could be obtained.
Sharif brothers were therefore disqualified from the elections in retrospect and thrown out of the politics. This meant a Punjab without a chief minister and very infuriated Sharif brothers. Zardari took a big chance at this moment. He was banking on a strong response from the two foolish bothers so that he could get a reason for imposing governor's rule in Punjab. Sharif brothers fell right into this trap and started making calls for unrest. Situation started slipping out of hands and Zardari moved in.
Now as the Govt. is paralyzed in Punjab and the PML-N supporter is exhausted in protesting here the wind from the long march sails is fast blowing out. The long march will take place in a circumstance where they have no support from the biggest province and people will be actively prevented from participating in it.
There is a lot that everyone will gain and loose in it. Zardari thinks that he will be able to perpetuate his rule in the center and now in Punjab with the support of PML-Q or other factions. The governor of Punjab with his third rate tactics thinks he will be able to avenge the sharif brothers and also help Zardari open up his business on horse trading in Punjab and turn the tables.
PML-Q hasn't decided yet. They have not decided on the question of wether they should move with PML-N and through this move wipe their sins off and come out with a clean slate thus rejuvinating their tarnished image and becoming a party again. This would mean that Shujaat and Elahi will have to give up their role as leaders and accept Sharif brothers as their leader again thus forming a united party. But they can come up with an understanding with PML-N where they retain their role as independent entity. They now have the most bargaining power. Sharif wants them and PPP wants them. They have a lot to gain in the coming days and as things appear right now it seems they will decide to sit with PML-N both in center and Punjab thus creating a win win situation for themselves. They get clean slates and they get share in govt. I don't think Shujaat could have asked for more. He is jubilated right now.
The other way of looking at things is with a deeper inspection. What if this is a ploy being played by both Sharif brothers and Zardari together to destroy the people's resistance and the lawyer's movement. By playing enemies for the time being Sharif brothers are out of control and therefore will not be blamed if they are not able to support the long march. They will be in less pressure to actively support it. Once all is back to normal they will resume their duties as they were before the long march. What if this is an interim shift of power to help bail them out from the moral high ground that they were stuck in since the time they decided to bail out the judges. If this is the case then after all dust is settled, this would mean an end of the transition as planned by Benazir and Nawaz Sharif. Surely there was more to charter of democracy than mere democracy.
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